Soccer Sub Simulator

The Pine Line — Predictive Substitution Simulator
Portland Hearts of Pine · Fan Project · App
I'm a Portland Hearts of Pine fan. I'm also someone who thinks about data. This project is what happens when those two things collide.
Over the course of the team's inaugural USL League One season, I gathered public match data from three different sources, unified it into a single dataset, and built a live substitution simulator that tells a coach exactly when a swap is most likely to shift the outcome.
The core is a dynamic threat score model with fatigue decay: as match minutes tick up, the model accounts for declining output in tired starters and weighs the fresh-legs advantage of available substitutes. The result is a real-time recommendation — Green Light: Sub Now — backed by win probability estimates and a crossover projection showing precisely when the substitute's output overtakes the starter's declining performance.
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